1
1
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Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
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Market Cues
Indian markets are likely to open positive tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
The US stocks showed a lack of direction throughout much of the trading session on
Wednesday but saw a positive reaction to the Federal Reserve's latest monetary
policy announcement. The major averages managed to end the session modestly
higher. The Dow inched up by 0.1 per cent to 27,911and Nasdaq went up by 0.4
per cent 8,654.
UK stocks edged higher on Wednesday, with investors making some selective
purchases amid hopes the Trump administration will delay implementing additional
15% tariffs on about $160 billion worth of Chinese goods. The FTSE 100 was almost
flat at 7,216.
On domestic front, Indian shares rose modestly on Wednesday as IT stocks
rebounded from declines over the previous two sessions. Underlying sentiment
remained cautious ahead of key global events as well as the release of
macroeconomic data on the domestic front. The benchmark BSE Sensex increased
by 0.4 per cent to 40,413.
News Analysis
India's coal power usage shrinks for the first time in 14 years
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Top Picks
Company
Sector
Rating
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
ICICI Bank
Financials
Accumulate
534
590
10.6
GMM Pfaudlers
Others
Accumulate
1,630
2,059
26.3
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
1,714
1,865
8.8
HDFC Bank
Financials
Accumulate
1,249
1,390
11.3
Ultratech Cement
Financials
Accumulate
4,003
4,982
24.4
More Top Picks on Pg4
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
0.4
173
40,413
Nifty
0.5
53
11,910
Mid Cap
0.5
76
14,595
Small Cap
0
1
13,147
Bankex
0.4
156
35,689
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Dow Jones
0.1
30
27,911
Nasdaq
0.4
38
8,654
FTSE
0.0
3
7,216
Nikkei
-0.1
-18
23,392
Hang Seng
0.8
209
26,645
Shanghai Com
0.2
7
2,924
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
970
695
Declines
1,510
1,119
Unchanged
192
113
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE
2,098
NSE
31,906
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
FII
437
(918)
(2,16,260)
*MFs
(74)
1,259
44,386
Top Gainers
Price (
`
)
Chg (%)
IPCALAB
1141
7.4
MANAPPURAM
166
5.7
GAIL
117
5.6
HDFCAMC
3029
4.8
ZEEL
283
4.7
Top Losers
Price (
`
)
Chg (%)
YESBANK
43
-15.3
INOXWIND
34
-7.3
STRTECH
107
-7.2
ALBK
19
-5.9
PCJEWELLER
21
-5.7
As on Dec 11, 2019
2
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Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
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News Analysis
India's coal power usage shrinks for the first time in 14 years
Coal’s use for power in the country is set to shrink for the first time in at least 14
years as demand slows and cheaper and cleaner renewable sources of electricity
erode the fossil fuel’s share.
Coal generation fell for a fourth month in November, the longest such streak in
government data going back to 2005. That echoes a decline in consumption
because of slowing industrial activity and prolonged rains that pushed up
production from hydroelectric dams while curbing electricity demand for air
conditioning and irrigation.
Power generation from coal, the most polluting fossil fuel, slumped 11 per cent
from a year earlier in November. Output in the year to November fell 2.4 per
cent, the first ever drop for the 11-month period.
India has a coal-fired generation capacity of almost 198 gigawatts, which
accounts for about 54 per cent of its installed generation capacity. That share has
reduced over the past years and is set to come down further as the country adds
more clean power to deal with air pollution and meet its climate goals. India’s coal
fleet used barely 51.4 per cent of its capacity in November, compared with 60.5
per cent a year earlier.
Economic and Political News
ADB scales down India's GDP growth forecast from 6.5% to 5.1% for FY20
Andhra to raise Rs 10,000 cr in loans to meet discoms' payment obligations
Irdai okays debt ETFs of CPSEs as eligible class of investment for insurers
Govt okays Rs 5,300 cr capital infusion into IIFCL via recap bonds in FY20
Corporate News
NCLT seeks clarity on available Jet slots from DGCA, aviation ministry
MTNL seeks shareholders' nod to raise funds, monetise land and holdings
Anil Ambani-backed Reliance Capital delays interest payment obligation
Nippon Express buys 22% stake in Future Group's logistics arm for Rs 700 cr
Coffee Day Enterprises seeking lenders nod for tech park sale to Blackstone
3
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Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
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Top Picks
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
ICICI Bank
3,45,094
534
590
10.6
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
Maruti Suzuki
2,11,201
6,992
8,552
22.3
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
Safari Industries
1,322
592
1,000
69.1
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
Parag Milk Foods
1,155
137
200
45.7
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank
6,83,737
1,249
1,390
11.3
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Amber Enterprises
3,202
1,018
1,100
8.0
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop solutions
provider for the major brands in the RAC industry
and currently serves eight out of the 10 top RAC
brands in India
Bata India
22,028
1,714
1,865
8.8
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India, offering
footwear, accessories and bags across brands. We
expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR of ~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to new
product launches, higher number of stores addition
and focus on women’s high growth segment and
margin improvement
4
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Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
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Continued...
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
Shriram Transport Finance
24,458
1,078
1,410
30.8
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
2,382
1,630
2,059
26.3
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase
its share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
RBL Bank
15,845
324
410
26.4
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
level ROA (1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
Larsen & Toubro
1,77,357
1,264
1,850
46.4
The company has a strong order backlog of
~` 3lakh cr. and a very strong pipeline of `9
lakh cr. for FY2020. We are positive on
the prospects of the Company given the
Government’s thrust on Infrastructure with
over 100lakh cr. of investments lined up over
the next 5 years. Reduction in tax rate
for domestic companies to 22% from 30% will
improve profitability for the company.
Ultratech Cement
1,15,547
4,003
4,982
24.4
Post merger of Century textile’s cement
division of 13.4mn TPA from H2FY20
company will have ~110mn TPA of capacity
with a dominant position in West and central
India. We are positive on the long term
prospects of the Company given ramp up
from acquired capacities and pricing
discipline in the industry. Reduction in tax rate
for domestic companies to 22% from 30% will
improve profitability for the company.
Source: Company, Angel Research
5
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Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
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Fundamental Call
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
CCL Products
2,514
189
360
90.5
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
Greenply Industries
1,963
160
256
60.0
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures
plywood & allied products and medium density
fibreboards (MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR
of ~14% to ~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly
due to healthy growth in plywood & lamination
business on the back of strong brand and
distribution network
L&T Finance Holding
23,216
116
150
29.3
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Aditya Birla Capital
22,102
96
118
23.5
We expect financialisation of savings and
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
KEI Industries
3,788
476
NA
NA
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Nilkamal
1,912
1,281
NA
NA
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,019
217
NA
NA
Strong brands and distribution network would
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
Music Broadcast Limited
806
29
NA
NA
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Inox Winds
763
34
NA
NA
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential growth
in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-20E. The
growth would be led by changing renewable
energy industry dynamics in favor of wind energy
segment viz. changes in auction regime from Feed-
In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse auction regime and
Government’s guidance for 10GW auction in FY19
and FY20 each.
Ashok Leyland
22,471
77
NA
NA
Considering the strong CV demand due to change
in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger pre-buying
activities), pick up in construction activities and no
significant impact on industry due to recent axle
load norms, we recommend BUY on Ashok Leyland
at current valuations.
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
14,739
145
NA
NA
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom line
front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by FY19 on
back of strong operating margin improvement.
6
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Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
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Continued...
Company
Market Cap
(` Cr)
CMP
(`)
Target
(`)
Upside
(%)
Rationale
GIC Housing
798
148
NA
NA
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over
next two year; change in borrowing mix will
help in NIM improvement
Source: Company, Angel Research
4
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Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
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Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 10 December, 2019
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
Source: RBI, Angel Research
6.0
6.8
7.7
8.1
8.0
7.0
6.6
5.8
5.0
4.5
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
4QFY18
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
(%)
0.2
2.5
1.6
0.2
2.7
3.2
4.6
1.2
4.3
(1.4)
(4.3)
(5.0)
(4.0)
(3.0)
(2.0)
(1.0)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
(%)
2.33
2.11
2.0
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.9
4.6
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
(%)
45.0
46.0
47.0
48.0
49.0
50.0
51.0
52.0
53.0
54.0
55.0
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(15.0)
(10.0)
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
5.4
5.15
4.00
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Oct-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Sep-19
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
(%)
5
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Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
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Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 24 Sep, 2019
0.3
2.5
5.3
6.9
1.1
5.0
5.8
3.7
1.5
2.2
0.8
1.8
1.4
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(%)
0.7
1.8
6.7
6.8
0.7
5.2
5.4
3.7
1.7
2.2
2.0
1.6
1.5
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(%)
9.1
4.0
19.1
10.2
14.6
14.8
17.0
15.2
12.5
16.0
12.2
14.3
13.2
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Brazil
Russia
India
China
South
Africa
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
UK
USA
Germany
France
Japan
(x)
6
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Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
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Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
1,08,233
0.9
7.0
20.9
Russia
Micex
2,935
1.4
7.1
22.6
India
Nifty
12,056
1.5
9.4
10.8
China
Shanghai Composite
2,872
-1.9
-0.5
11.0
South Africa
Top 40
49,134
0.5
0.4
11.3
Mexico
Mexbol
41,939
-2.3
-1.9
4.4
Indonesia
LQ45
993
1.5
0.1
1.9
Malaysia
KLCI
1,568
-0.1
-4.7
-6.7
Thailand
SET 50
1,047
-5.1
-6.1
-3.6
USA
Dow Jones
28,051
3.7
6.2
9.8
UK
FTSE
7,347
1.4
1.9
5.3
Japan
Nikkei
23,294
1.6
12.5
4.2
Germany
DAX
13,236
2.9
10.9
17.6
France
CAC
5,905
3.1
7.8
18.0
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 10 December, 2019
7
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Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
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Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
8
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Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
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Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental
Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
Fundamental
Endurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
9
www.angelbroking.com
Market Outlook
December 12, 2019
www.angelbroking.com
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.angelbroking.com
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